Elsevier S & T

An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino & the Southern Oscillation

Clarke, Allan J.

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Table of contents

Table of Contentsvii
Prefacexiii
Chapter 1 Introduction1
References7
Chapter 2 ENSO in the Tropical Pacific11
2.1. Overview11
2.2. Spatial Patterns of ENSO in the Tropical Pacific11
2.2.1. The western equatorial Pacific region 150°E–150°W where ocean–atmosphere coupling is st14
2.2.2. ENSO effects in the eastern Pacific17
2.2.3. ENSO effects in the far western Pacific (120°E–140°E)20
2.2.4. ENSO effects in the upper atmosphere20
2.3. Time Series Structure of the ENSO Variables24
2.4. A Physical Explanation for El Niño28
References31
Chapter 3 Equatorial Ocean Waves33
3.1. Overview33
3.2. The Linear Stratified Ocean Model34
3.3. The Description of the Constant Depth Ocean Dynamics in Terms of Vertical Modes37
3.3.1. The continuously stratified case37
3.3.2. The two-layer stratification case39
3.4. Equatorial Waves46
3.4.1. The equatorial Kelvin wave46
3.4.2. Other equatorial waves48
3.4.3. Low-frequency equatorial waves54
3.4.4. Energy flux and group velocity55
References56
Chapter 4 Equatorial Wave Reflection from Pacific Ocean Boundaries57
4.1. Overview57
4.2. Wave Reflection at the Western Pacific Boundary58
4.2.1. Reflection from a solid meridional western boundary58
4.2.2. Low-frequency reflection from a solid non-meridional western boundary59
4.2.3. ENSO frequency reflection from the gappy western Pacific boundary61
4.2.4. Interannual surface flow between the Pacific and Indian Oceans65
4.3. Wave Reflection at the Eastern Pacific Ocean Boundary67
4.3.1. Moore’s solution for the reflection of an equatorial Kelvin wave from a meridional eastern68
4.3.2. The coastal Kelvin wave70
4.3.3. Solution for β-plane motions near the eastern boundary72
4.3.4. Limiting forms of the near-boundary low-frequency solution76
4.3.5. Eastern ocean near-boundary physics78
4.3.6. Linking the coastal and equatorial low-frequency variability78
4.3.7. Low-frequency reflection from non-meridional eastern ocean boundaries80
4.3.8. Reflection of ENSO energy at the eastern Pacific Ocean boundary83
References85
Chapter 5 Wind-Forced Equatorial Wave Theory and the Equatorial Ocean Response to ENSO Wind Forcing89
5.1. Overview89
5.2. The Forced Wave Model90
5.3. Solutions for General Low-Frequency Large-Scale Wind Forcing95
5.4. Solutions for Idealized Forcing97
5.4.1. Unbounded ocean, spatially constant wind – the Yoshida equatorial jet97
5.4.2. The steady ocean response when the wind stress has no curl98
5.5. Observed Low-Frequency Behavior of the Equatorial Pacific Sea Level and Thermocline101
5.6. ENSO Equatorial Ocean Response due to the Wind Stress Curl105
5.7. El Niño and Equatorial Kelvin Waves109
5.8. Conclusion110
References111
Chapter 6 Sea Surface Temperature, Deep Atmospheric Convection and ENSO Surface Winds113
6.1. Overview113
6.2. Some Preliminaries114
6.3. Equation of State115
6.3.1. ‘Ideal’ gas115
6.3.2. Dry air115
6.3.3. Moist air116
6.4. The First Law of Thermodynamics and Moist Static Energy117
6.5. Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Atmospheric Convection120
6.6. Heating and Vertical Velocity123
6.7. Geopotential, Pressure Coordinates and the Continuity Equation125
6.7.1. Geopotential and geopotential height125
6.7.2. Horizontal gradients of Φ127
6.7.3. The continuity equation in pressure coordinates128
6.8. A Model of the Near-Surface Tropical Atmosphere’s Response to Large-Scale Convective Heating129
6.8.1. Model formulation130
6.8.2. Forced, damped equatorial long wave theory133
6.8.3. ENSO wind anomalies and forced wave physics135
6.8.4. Caveat136
References136
Chapter 7 ENSO Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models139
7.1. Overview139
7.2. Delayed Oscillator Theory141
7.2.1. Introduction141
7.2.2. Formulation of a warm pool displacement/delayed oscillator model of ENSO142
7.2.3. Model solutions144
7.2.4. The influence of other negative feedbacks147
7.2.5. Non-constant Δ148
7.3. Discharge–Recharge Oscillator Theory149
7.3.1. Introduction149
7.3.2. The atmosphere drives the ocean149
7.3.3. Ocean dynamics and thermodynamics drive Tcen and the atmosphere150
7.3.4. Mathematical solution and coupled physics151
7.4. Intermediate Coupled Models153
7.5. Conclusion155
References156
Chapter 8 Phase-Locking of ENSO to the Calendar Year159
8.1. Overview159
8.2. The Composite Warm ENSO Event160
8.3. Phase-Locked ENSO Index Time Series169
8.4. Phase-Locked Propagating Zonal Equatorial Wind Anomalies173
8.5. Linking the Pacific Equatorial Wind Stress Anomalies with the SOI and NINO3.4178
8.5.1. The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and zonal equatorial wind stress anomalies179
8.5.2. The relationship between El Niño and the zonal equatorial wind stress180
8.5.3. Phase-locked structure of NINO3.4 and the SOI181
8.6. Phase-Locking and Biennial Variability181
8.7. A Phase-Locking Mechanism for the Termination of ENSO Events182
8.7.1. Basic mechanism183
8.7.2. Large El Niños184
8.8. Elements of a Seasonally Phase-Locked ENSO Mechanism185
8.9. Concluding Remarks186
References186
Chapter 9 Upper Air Response to ENSO Heating and Atmospheric Teleconnections189
9.1. Overview189
9.2. Observations190
9.3. Nearly Zonally Asymmetric ENSO Heating Anomalies195
9.4. An Atmospheric ENSO Model196
9.4.1. Logarithmic pressure coordinates197
9.4.2. Equations of motion in logarithmic pressure coordinates197
9.4.3. Model equations199
9.4.4. Separation of the governing equations into vertical modes201
9.4.5. Dominance of the first vertical mode204
9.5. The Large Zonally Symmetric Air Temperature Response206
9.6. Mid-latitude Zonally Symmetric Cooling During Warm ENSO Events208
9.7. Zonally Asymmetric Mid-latitude Teleconnections210
9.7.1. Introduction210
9.7.2. Stationary Rossby wave theory211
References215
Chapter 10 ENSO Forecasting Using Dynamical Models217
10.1. Overview217
10.2. Smoothing, Bias Correction and Nudging219
10.2.1. Smoothing219
10.2.2. Bias correction219
10.2.3. Nudging221
10.3. The Kalman Filter222
10.4. Adjoint Data Assimilation225
10.5. Dynamical Model Forecast Performance227
Appendix 10.A. Minimization of (10.15)229
Appendix 10.B. Connecting Pa and Pf230
References231
Chapter 11 ENSO Forecasting Using Statistical Models233
11.1. Overview233
11.2. The Climatology and Persistence Forecasting Scheme234
11.3. A Precursor ENSO Prediction Model236
11.4. Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis238
11.4.1. The Basic Idea239
11.4.2. Application of CCA to ENSO prediction240
11.5. ENSO Prediction Using a Constructed Analogue Method241
11.6. ENSO Prediction Using Linear Inverse Modeling242
11.6.1. The basic theory242
11.6.2. Model performance and ENSO dynamics246
11.7. Comparison of Statistical and Dynamical ENSO Prediction Models246
References246
Chapter 12 ENSO’s Influence on Marine and Bird Life249
12.1. Overview249
12.2. El Niño’s Influence in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific250
12.3. Peruvian Anchovies and Guano Birds252
12.4. Zooplankton off California256
12.4.1. Background256
12.4.2. El Niño and California coastal waters257
12.4.3. Rossby waves and ENSO currents off the California coast258
12.4.4. Zooplankton population and El Niño260
12.5. The Leaky Western Equatorial Pacific Boundary and Australian ‘Salmon’262
12.5.1. Physical background262
12.5.2. The effect of coastal ENSO flow on western Australian salmon264
12.6. Rock Lobsters and the Leeuwin Current off Western Australia266
12.6.1. Physical background266
12.6.2. The life cycle of the western rock lobster268
12.6.3. Prediction of the rock lobster catch269
12.6.4. Variations of the rock lobster catch and ENSO269
12.7. Banana Prawns in the Gulf of Carpentaria271
12.8. Green Turtles on the Great Barrier Reef273
12.9. Tuna and the Movement of the Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool275
12.10. Migration of the Black-Throated Blue Warbler276
12.11. Concluding Remarks279
References279
Appendix A Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (Principal Component Analysis)283
A.1. Basic Idea283
A.2. The Higher Order EOFs and Their Principal Components285
A.2.1. The EOFs are orthogonal285
A.2.2. The principal components are uncorrelated286
A.2.3. Representation of X(t) in terms of EOFs286
A.2.4. Fraction of variance of the time series explained by the ith principal component287
A.2.5. The meaning of the higher order EOFs287
A.3. Physics and EOFs288
References289
Appendix B Canonical Correlation Analysis291
B.1. Basic Idea291
B.2. Canonical Correlation Pairs and Their Correlation Properties294
B.3. The Meaning of the Higher Order Correlation Pairs297
B.4. Prediction Y(t) from X(t) Using CCA298
B.5. Use of Empirical Orthogonal Functions in CCA299
B.6. Predicting Y(t) Using EOFs and CCA300
Reference300
Index301

Book details

Vendor Elsevier S & T
SKU 9780120885480
ISBN-13 9780080560830
Author Clarke, Allan J.
Category Science
Subject Meteorology & Climatology

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Many scientists either working on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) problem or its many applications have not been trained in both the equatorial ocean and atmospheric dynamics necessary to understand it. This book seeks to overcome this difficulty by providing a step by step introduction to ENSO, helping the upper level graduate student or research scientist to learn quickly the ENSO basics and be up to date with the latest ENSO research. The text assumes that the reader has a knowledge of the equations of fluid mechanics on a rotating earth and emphasizes the observations and simple physical explanations of them.
Following a history of ENSO and a discussion of ENSO observations in Chapters 1 and 2, Chapters 3-5 consider relevant equatorial ocean dynamics, Chapters 6 and 9 relevant atmospheric dynamics, and Chapters 7 and 8 the main paradigms for how the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere couple together to produce ENSO. Chapter 8 also discusses the old mystery of why ENSO tends to be locked in phase with the seasonal cycle. Successful dynamical and statistical approaches to ENSO prediction are discussed in Chapters 10 and 11 while Chapter 12 concludes the book with examples of how ENSO influences marine and bird life.

* Quick reference guide and step by step introduction to El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics
* Keep informed and up to date on El Niño/Southern Oscillation research and how El Niño and the Southern Oscillation can be predicted
* Understand how El Niño can affect marine and bird life

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