Elsevier S & T

General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present, and Future

Randall, David A.

In stock

No reviews

61.000 KD inc. VAT

License

perpetual

Table of contents

Cover
Contentsvii
Contributorsxxiii
Forewordxxvii
Prefacexxxi
Chapter 1. A Personal Perspective on the Early Years of General Circulation Modeling at UCLA1
I. Introduction1
II. Early History of Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere2
III. AA's Personal Pre-UCLA History8
IV. The "Arakawa Jacobian"13
V. Development of the Mintz–Arakawa Model18
VI. Second Phase of Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere and the Evolution of Different Generations21
VII. Vertical Differencing in the UCLA GCM25
VIII. Horizontal Differencing in the UCLA GCM30
IX. Formulation of PBL Processes in the UCLA GCM38
X. Formulation of Moist Processes in the UCLA GCM44
XI. Closing Remarks53
Appendix A54
Appendix B58
References60
Chapter 2. A Brief History of Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling67
I. Introduction67
II. Before 1955: Numerical Weather Prediction and the Prehistory of GCMs68
III. 1955–1965: Establishment of General Circulation Modeling70
IV. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory71
V. The UCLA Department of Meteorology73
VI. The Livermore Atmospheric Model76
VII. The National Center for Atmospheric Research77
VIII. 1965–1975: Spread of GCMs79
IX. 1975–1985: GCMs Mature82
X. Conclusion84
Appendix85
References87
Chapter 3. Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips's 1956 Experiment91
I. Introduction91
II. General Circulation: Ideas and Controversies, 1940s to Early 1950s94
III. The Experiment103
IV. Reaction to the Experiment115
V. Epilogue119
References121
Chapter 4. Climate Modeling in the Global Warming Debate127
I. Introduction127
II. GISS Global Climate Models128
III. Climate Sensitivity135
IV. Transient Climate: Climate Predictions139
V. Missing Atmospheric Absorption147
VI. Global Warming Debate154
VII. A Cautionary Conclusion159
References161
Chapter 5. A Retrospective Analysis of the Pioneering Data Assimilation Experiments with the Mintz ?165
I. Introduction165
II. Description of Experiments167
III. Results of GEOS Simulation Experiments168
IV. Conclusions175
References178
Chapter 6. A Retrospective View of Arakawa's Ideas on Cumulus Parameterization181
I. Introduction181
II. Primitive Equation Models, Quasi-Geostrophic Models, and the Concept of Filtering the Transient183
III. Arakawa's 1968 Cumulus Parameterization: Laying the Conceptual Foundation for Future Work188
IV. Generalization to the Spectral Form of Cumulus Parameterization Theory193
V. Conclusions197
References198
Chapter 7. On the Origin of Cumulus Parameterization for Numerical Prediction Models199
I. Introduction199
II. Treatment of Cumulus Convection in Tropical Cyclone Models200
III. Treatment of Cumulus Convection in General Circulation Models207
IV. Advent of Arakawa-Schubert Cumulus Parameterization210
V. Epilogue217
References221
Chapter 8. Quasi-Equilibrium Thinking225
I. Introduction225
II. Is "Latent Heating" a Useful Concept?227
III. The Physics of Convective Quasi-Equilibrium238
IV. Nonequilibrium Thinking240
V. Equilibrium Thinking247
VI. Summary253
References254
Chapter 9. Application of Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert Cumulus Parameterization to the NCEP Climate Mo257
I. Introduction257
II. Modification of Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert259
III. The New NCEP Climate Model261
IV. Sensitivity in Semi-Prognostic Test263
V. Sensitivity Experiments with the Climate Model265
VI. Summary and Conclusions280
References284
Chapter 10. Solving Problems with GCMs: General Circulation Models and Their Role in the Climate Mod285
I. Introduction: The Modeling Hierarchy285
II. Intraseasonal Oscillations: Their Theory and Simulation292
III. El Nino–Southern Oscillation, from the Devil's Staircase to Prediction299
IV. Interdecadal Oscillations in the Oceans' Thermohaline Circulation311
V. Perspectives317
References319
Chapter 11. Prospects for Development of Medium-Range and Extended-Range Forecasts327
I. Introduction327
II. Methods for the Development of Forecast Models328
III. Development of the ECMWF Forecasting System332
IV. Progress in Forecasting336
V. ECMWF's Earth System Model and Assimilation System337
VI. Opportunities for Development of Medium-Range and Extended-Range Weather Forecasts339
VII. A Forward Look350
References370
Chapter 12. Climate Services at the Japan Meteorological Agency Using a General Circulation Model: D355
I. Introduction355
II. Procedure of One-Month Prediction356
III. Skill of One-Month Prediction358
IV. Future Improvements368
References370
Chapter 13. Numerical Methods: The Arakawa Approach, Horizontal Grid, Global, and Limited-Area Model373
I. Introduction: The Arakawa Approach in Numerical Methods373
II. The Horizontal Grid: Retrospective376
III. Hexagonal Grids380
IV. Randall Z Grid and C-Grid-Like B/E Grid Gravity Wave Schemes385
V. The Eta Model: An Arakawa Approach Story389
VI. Global Modeling: The Pole Problem396
VII. The Eta Model: The Next 24 Months and the Limited-Area Modeling Concept397
VIII. The Eta Coordinate and the Resolution versus Domain Size Trade-Off401
IX. Hurricane Tracks406
X. Progress Achieved408
XI. Example of a Successful Forecast410
XII. Conclusion412
References414
Chapter 14. Formulation of Oceanic General Circulation Models421
I. Introduction421
II. Dynamics423
III. Forcing427
IV. Initial Conditions and Equilibrium429
V. Numerical Methods430
VI. Domain Geometry433
VII. Parameterizations434
VIII. Spatial Resolution443
IX. Role of the Ocean in Climate System Models445
X. Conclusion451
References452
Chapter 15. Climate and Variability in the First Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model457
I. Introduction457
II. Model Description/Implementation459
III. Model Results468
IV. Conclusion484
References486
Chapter 16. Climate Simulation Studies at CCSR489
I. Introduction489
II. Climate Simulations at CCSR491
III. Climate System Dynamics499
IV. How Should We Evaluate Our Simulations?504
V. Conclusion505
References507
Chapter 17. Global Atmospheric Modeling Using a Geodesic Grid with an Isentropic Vertical Coordinate509
I. Introduction509
II. The Z Grid512
III. A Geodesic Shallow-Water Model Using the Z Grid516
IV. Semi-Implicit Time Differencing518
V. Flux-Corrected Transport518
VI. A Full-Physics Version of the Model Using the Generalized Sigma Coordinate519
VII. A Three-Dimensional Version of the Model with an Isentropic Vertical Coordinate519
VIII. Further Analysis of the Isentropic Coordinate521
IX. Conclusions535
References536
Chapter 18. A Coupled GCM Pilgrimage: From Climate Catastrophe to ENSO Simulations539
I. Introduction539
II. First Journey: From Catastrophe to Cold Bias and Weak Interannual Variability at the Equator540
III. Second Journey: Model Analyses and Revisions546
IV. Third Journey: Realistic Simulation at the Equator556
V. Lessons Learned561
VI. Present and Future Directions567
References573
Chapter 19. Representing the Stratocumulus-Topped Boundary Layer in GCMs577
I. Introduction577
II. Current Understanding of the STBL Regime578
III. Existing STBL Turbulence and Cloud Schemes in GCMs and Their Problems583
IV. Current Effort in Further Understanding and Developing Parameterizations of the STBL591
V. Conclusion602
References602
Chapter 20. Cloud System Modeling605
I. Introduction605
II. Interactions between Radiation and Convection in Tropical Cloud Clusters611
III. Thin Midlevel Stratiform (Altocumulus) Clouds615
IV. Stratocumulus-to-Trade Cumulus Transition in the Subtropical Marine Boundary Layer622
V. Enhancement of Surface Fluxes by Tropical Convection631
VI. Plumes Generated by Arctic Leads633
VII. Conclusions637
References637
Chapter 21. Using Single-Column Models to Improve Cloud-Radiation Parameterizations641
I. Introduction641
II. Single-Column Modeling643
III. Parameterization Validation and Single-Column Diagnostic Models646
IV. Model Experiments650
V. Conclusion656
References656
Chapter 22. Entropy, the Lorenz Energy Cycle, and Climate659
I. Introduction659
II. Global Thermodynamics and Monsoonal Circulations661
III. A Historical Perspective Concerning Entropy and Carathéodory's Statement of the Second Law666
IV. The Classical Concept of the Carnot Cycle and the Driftless Climate State670
V. The Climate State and the Reversible Component of Total Energy679
VI. The Classical Concept of Efficiency in Relation to <g(E)> and <g(ΔEα)>683
VII. Sources of Entropy in the Modeled Climate State685
VIII. The Entropy Balance688
IX. Energy Balance and Aphysical Sources of Entropy691
X. The Expected Magnitudes of <Δg(ΔEα)>694
XI. The March of the Seasons and Reversible Isentropic Processes698
XII. Conclusions and Additional Considerations707
References716
Chapter 23. Future Development of General Circulation Models721
I. Introduction: The Beginning of the "Great Challenge" Third Phase721
II. Choice of Dynamics Equations727
III. Discretization Problems: Choice of Vertical Grid, Vertical Coordinate, and Horizontal Grid729
IV. Discretization Problems: Advection Schemes740
V. Parameterizations of PBL and Stratiform Cloud Processes and Representation of the Effects of Surf749
VI. Cumulus Parameterization756
VII. Conclusions770
References773
Index781
Color Plate SectionColor Plat

Book details

Vendor Elsevier S & T
SKU 9780125780100
ISBN-13 9780080507231
Author Randall, David A.
Category Nature
Subject Weather

Do you have questions about this book?

Ask an expert!

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are rapidly assuming widespread use as powerful tools for predicting global events on time scales of months to decades, such as the onset of EL Nino, monsoons, soil moisture saturation indices, global warming estimates, and even snowfall predictions. While GCMs have been praised for helping to foretell the current El Nino and its impact on droughts in Indonesia, its full power is only now being recognized by international scientists and governments who seek to link GCMs to help them estimate fish harvests, risk of floods, landslides, and even forest fires.
Scientists in oceanography, hydrology, meteorology, and climatology and civil, ocean, and geological engineers perceive a need for a reference on GCM design. In this compilation of information by an internationally recognized group of experts, Professor Randall brings together the knowledge base of the forerunners in theoretical and applied frontiers of GCM development. General Circulation Model Development focuses on the past, present, and future design of numerical methods for general circulation modeling, as well as the physical parameterizations required for their proper implementation. Additional chapters on climate simulation and other applications provide illustrative examples of state-of-the-art GCM design.

Key Features
* Foreword by Norman Phillips
* Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts
* Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA
* Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling
* Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students

Instant delivery by email
Your access email arrives within minutes of checkout, with a sign-in link for each book — no shipping, no waiting.

Read on any device
Books open in VitalSource Bookshelf on your phone, tablet, or computer, online or offline. Your library is always available at aafaq.vitalsource.com — just log in with the email you used at checkout.

Lost the email?
Resend it to yourself in seconds from My eBook orders, or email cs@aafaqeducation.com and we'll help.