Elsevier S & T

Meteorology at the Millennium

Pearce, Robert P.

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Table of contents

Cover
Contentsv
Forewordxi
Prefacexiii
Contributorsxv
Part 1. Weather Prediction at the Millennium1
Chapter 1. Predicting Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Forecasts3
A. INTRODUCTION3
B. THE LIOUVILLE EQUATION3
C. THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF MODEL ERROR5
D. PROBABILITY FORECASTING BY ENSEMBLE PREDICTION7
E. VERIFYING PROBABILITY FORECASTS10
F. THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS11
G. CONCLUDING REMARKS12
REFERENCES12
Chapter 2. Extratropical Cyclones An Historical Perspective14
A. INTRODUCTION14
B. THE THERMAL THEORY14
C. THE BERGEN SCHOOL15
D. BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY MODEL17
E. POTENTIAL VORTICITY IDEAS18
F. PREDICTABILITY, FORECASTING AND OBSERVATIONS20
G. THE FUTURE21
REFERENCES22
Chapter 3. Numerical Methods for Atmospheric General Circulation Models Refinements or Fundamental A23
A. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION23
B. CLIMATE MODELS24
C. NWP VERSUS CLIMATE MODELLING25
D. FUTURE EVOLUTION OF NUMERICS26
REFERENCES27
Chapter 4. Mesoscale Mountains and the Larger-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics: A Review29
A. INTRODUCTION29
B. REGIME DIAGRAM FOR FLOW PAST TOPOGRAPHY30
C. INTERACTIONS WITH THE BALANCED LARGER-SCALE DYNAMICS34
D. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF ALPINE WAKES37
E. OUTLOOK39
REFERENCES41
Chapter 5. The Upscale Turbulent Cascade Shear Layers, Cyclones and Gas Giant Bands43
A. INTRODUCTION43
B. PAIRING IN UNSTRATIFIED SHEAR FLOW44
C. PAIRING IN ROTATING STRATIFIED FLOW: SUBSYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY48
D. PAIRING IN VORTEX DYNAMICS ON THE SPHERE: ROSSBY-WAVE ARREST OF THE UPSCALE CASCADE AND THE PAR51
E. CONCLUSIONS59
REFERENCES60
Chapter 6. The Role of Water in Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate62
A. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW62
B. WATER IN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS64
C. WATER IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM69
D. SUMMARY70
REFERENCES71
Chapter 7. New Observational Technologies Scientific and Societal Impacts72
A. INTRODUCTION72
B. REMOTE SENSING OF THE ATMOSPHERE72
C. REMOTE SENSORS AND THEIR SCIENTIFIC IMPACTS73
D. SOCIETAL IMPACTS80
E. CONCLUSIONS81
REFERENCES82
Chapter 8. Turning Dynamical Ideas into Forecast Practice A Proposal for a Renewed Graphical Summary83
A. INTRODUCTION83
B. THE EXISTING GRAPHICAL SUMMARY MAP: ITS IMPORTANCE AND ITS PROBLEMS84
C. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE86
D. RATIONALE OF A DYNAMICALLY GROUNDED SYNOPTIC SUMMARY88
E. EXAMPLES OF USE OF THE NEW GRAPHICAL FRAMEWORK90
F. POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING98
G. CONCLUSION101
APPENDIX: THE GRAPHICAL CODE OF ANASYG AND PRESYG102
REFERENCES104
Chapter 9. Weather Forecasting From Woolly Art to Solid Science106
A. THE PREHISTORY OF SCIENTIFIC FORECASTING106
B. THE BEGINNING OF MODERN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION110
C. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TODAY113
D. CONCLUSIONS116
REFERENCES118
Part 2. Climate Variability and Change121
Chapter 10. Problems in Quantifying Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Earth’s Energy123
A. INTRODUCTION123
B. ESTIMATES OF THE GLOBAL-MEAN RADIATIVE FORCING124
C. TIME VARIATION OF RADIATIVE FORCING126
D. DEVELOPMENTS IN STUDIES OF THE INDIRECT AEROSOL EFFECT129
E. CONCLUDING REMARKS130
REFERENCES131
Chapter 11. Changes in Climate and Variability over the Last 1000 Years133
A. INTRODUCTION133
B. THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD (1850–)133
C. EARLY EUROPEAN INSTRUMENTAL RECORDS137
D. THE PRE-INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD (BACK TO 1000)137
E. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS140
REFERENCES141
Chapter 12. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic143
A. INTRODUCTION143
B. WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL CLIMATE?143
C. WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY?144
D. CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY149
REFERENCES150
Chapter 13. Prediction and Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change152
A. INTRODUCTION152
B. AN EARLY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL SIMULATION OF THE CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE152
C. A RECENT SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE GASES153
D. DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE158
E. SOME CONCLUDING REMARKS162
REFERENCES163
Chapter 14. Absorption of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere Reconciling Models with Measurements165
A. INTRODUCTION165
B. THE GLOBAL RADIATION BALANCE165
C. SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS166
D. ABSORPTION BY THE SURFACE168
E. ABSORPTION BY THE ATMOSPHERE168
F. DISCUSSION172
REFERENCES172
Chapter 15. The Impact of Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Spectrum on Climate Research174
A. THE CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION PROBLEM174
B. SATELLITE SPECTRAL SIGNATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE175
C. RECENT WORK ON SPECTRAL SIGNATURES176
D. IRIS AND IMG: CHANGE OF OLR (v ) BETWEEN 1970 AND 1997177
E. ANALYSIS OF IMG AND IRIS DATA178
F. SUMMARY181
REFERENCES182
Part 3. The Atmosphere and Oceans183
Chapter 16. Atlantic Air–Sea Interaction Revisited185
A. INTRODUCTION185
B. DATA AND MODELS186
C. THE ANALYSIS METHOD187
D. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF NORTH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES188
E. NORTH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORCING OF THE ATMOSPHERE190
F. POTENTIAL SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY BASED ON THE ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL194
G. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION195
REFERENCES197
Chapter 17. The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System198
A. INTRODUCTION198
B. REGULATION OF THE MONSOON ANNUAL CYCLE201
C. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE MONSOON206
D. GENERAL THEORY OF THE REGULATION OF THE COUPLED OCEAN–ATMOSPHERIC MONSOON SYSTEM214
E. CONCLUSIONS215
REFERENCES217
Chapter 18. Laminar Flow in the Ocean Ekman Layer220
A. INTRODUCTION220
B. THE EFFECT OF A STABLE DENSITY GRADIENT220
C. THE FATAL FLAW221
D. FLOW VISUALIZATION222
E. THE DISCOVERY OF LAMINAR FLOW222
F. FINE STRUCTURE222
G. WAVE-INDUCED SHEAR INSTABILITY222
H. BILLOW TURBULENCE223
I. REVERSE TRANSITION224
J. REVISED PARADIGM224
K. ONE-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF THE UPPER OCEAN224
L. DIURNAL VARIATION225
M. BUOYANT CONVECTION225
N. BILLOW TURBULENCE IN THE DIURNAL THERMOCLINE225
O. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EKMAN CURRENT PROFILE225
P. SOLAR RADIATION226
Q. APPLICATIONS226
R. DISCUSSION231
S. CONCLUSION231
REFERENCES231
Chapter 19. Ocean Observations and the Climate Forecast Problem233
A. INTRODUCTION233
B. SOME HISTORY: OBSERVATIONAL AND THEORETICAL233
C. THE PERCEPTION234
D. THE REALITY238
E. CONCLUSIONS BASED UPON MISAPPREHENSIONS242
F. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?243
REFERENCES245
Part 4. The Biogeochemical System247
Chapter 20. Biochemical Connections Between the Atmosphere and the Ocean249
A. INTRODUCTION249
B. THE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE250
C. AIR–SEA EXCHANGE OF GASES OF IMPORTANCE250
D. IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC DUST ON OCEAN BIOCHEMISTRY253
E. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL FLUXES ACROSS THE AIR–SEA INTERFACE256
REFERENCES257
Chapter 21. Modelling Vegetation and the Carbon Cycle as Interactive Elements of the Climate System259
A. INTRODUCTION259
B. MODEL DESCRIPTION260
C. PRE-INDUSTRIAL STATE264
D. A FIRST TRANSIENT CLIMATE–CARBON CYCLE SIMULATION268
E. DISCUSSION272
F. CONCLUSIONS276
REFERENCES277
Part 5. Middle Atmosphere and Solar Physics: Other Planets and Epochs281
Chapter 22. Some Fundamental Aspects of Atmospheric Dynamics, with a Solar Spinoff283
A. INTRODUCTION283
B. THERMAL AND CHEMICAL EVIDENCE284
C. WAVE-INDUCED MOMENTUM TRANSPORT: SOME SIMPLE EXAMPLES287
D. THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO)289
E. THE MICHELSON–MORLEY PRINCIPLE291
F. THE NONACCELERATION CONSTRAINT291
G. EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES291
H. GYROSCOPIC PUMPING292
I. ROSSBY-AND GRAVITY-WAVE BREAKING294
J. THE JIGSAW PUZZLE: BAROTROPIC MODELS295
K. GENERALIZATION TO REALISTIC STRATIFIED FLOW299
L. THE SUN’S RADIATIVE INTERIOR299
REFERENCES303
Chapter 23. Atmospheric Dynamics of the Outer Planets306
A. INTRODUCTION306
B. VOYAGER OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES306
C. MODELS OF VORTICES IN SHEAR308
D. GALILEO PROBE AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE309
E. GALILEO ORBITER OBSERVATIONS OF WATER AND LIGHTNING312
REFERENCES315
Chapter 24. Palaeoclimate Studies at the Millennium The Role of the Coupled System316
A. INTRODUCTION316
B. PRE-QUATERNARY PALAEOCLIMATES316
C. QUATERNARY PALAEOCLIMATES318
D. SUBORBITAL TIMESCALE VARIABILITY323
E. CONCLUSIONS323
REFERENCES324
Index327

Book details

Vendor Elsevier S & T
SKU 9780125480352
ISBN-13 9780080511498
Author Pearce, Robert P.
Category Nature
Subject Weather

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Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines.

Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come.

The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets.

This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

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