The Global Forest Products Model: Structure, Estimation, and Applications
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Table of contents
- Title Pageiii
- Copyright Pageiv
- CONTENTSix
- Preface and Acknowledgmentsxiii
- PART I: Introduction1
- Chapter 1. Background and Objectives3
- 1.1 Background and Justification3
- 1.2 Previous and Related Models6
- 1.3 A Brief History of the GFPM11
- 1.4 Objectives and Outline13
- Chapter 2. Overview of the Global Forest Products Sector15
- 2.1 Introduction15
- 2.2 Production16
- 2.3 International Trade22
- 2.4 Forest Product Price Trends31
- 2.5 Economic and Demographic Prospects33
- 2.6 Summary and Conclusion35
- PART II: Model Construction37
- Chapter 3. GFPM Structure and Formulation39
- 3.1 Overview of the GFPM39
- 3.2 Spatial Global Equilibrium41
- 3.3 Market Dynamics44
- 3.4 Linear Approximation of Demand and Supply47
- 3.5 Implementation of Trade Inertia Constraints51
- 3.6 Welfare Analysis52
- Chapter 4. Model Calibration and Validation57
- 4.1 Introduction57
- 4.2 Countries and Products57
- 4.3 Base-year Data58
- 4.4 Parameter Estimation61
- 4.5 Model Validation75
- PART III: GFPM Applications89
- Chapter 5. The Base Scenario91
- 5.1 Introduction91
- 5.2 Model Data, Parameters, and Assumptions91
- 5.3 Base Scenario Projections from 1997 to 201098
- 5.4 Summary and Discussion124
- Chapter 6. Effects of the Asian Economic Crisis127
- 6.1 Introduction127
- 6.2 GFPM Application129
- 6.3 Summary and Conclusion142
- Chapter 7. Effects of Tariff Liberalization145
- 7.1 Introduction145
- 7.2 The Uruguay Round of GATT and the ATL Proposal145
- 7.3 Previous Studies147
- 7.4 GFPM Simulations148
- 7.5 Summary and Conclusion164
- Chapter 8. Impact of U.S. Paper-Recycling Policies167
- 8.1 Introduction167
- 8.2 Paper Recycling in the United States168
- 8.3 Previous Studies170
- 8.4 GFPM Analysis171
- 8.5 International Effects174
- 8.6 Summary and Conclusion181
- Chapter 9. Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on New Zealand183
- 9.1 Introduction183
- 9.2 Trade Agreements184
- 9.3 GFPM Analysis186
- 9.4 GFPM Results188
- 9.5 Summary and Conclusion193
- Chapter 10. Impacts of U.S. Timber Harvest Restrictions195
- 10.1 Introduction195
- 10.2 Previous Studies196
- 10.3 Objectives197
- 10.4 Forest Policies Affecting Timber Harvest in the United States197
- 10.5 Modified Global Forest Products Model199
- 10.6 Effects of Further U.S. Harvest Restrictions on the Pacific Rim Forest Sector205
- 10.7 Sensitivity to Trade Regime212
- 10.8 Summary and Conclusion213
- PART IV: GFPM Software217
- Chapter 11. Using the GFPM Software219
- 11.1 Introduction219
- 11.2 Installation and Configuration220
- 11.3 GFPM Base-Year Input220
- 11.4 Exogenous Change Data229
- 11.5 Running the GFPM232
- 11.6 Examples of GFPM Output235
- 11.7 Welfare Analysis with the GFPM239
- 11.8 Troubleshooting GFPM Errors240
- Chapter 12. GFPM Software Design and Implementation243
- 12.1 Introduction243
- 12.2 Overview of GFPM Software Structure244
- 12.3 Control Programs and Program Execution245
- 12.4 Data Preparation249
- 12.5 Data Processing and Problem Solving251
- 12.6 Output Retrieval258
- PART V: Conclusion263
- Chapter 13. Summary, Evaluation, and Prospects265
- 13.1 Summary of Results265
- 13.2 Evaluation and Prospects268
- 13.3 Conclusion276
- References279
- Index291
The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) book provides a complete introduction to this widely applied computer model. The GFPM is a dynamic economic equilibrium model that is used to predict production, consumption, trade, and prices of 14 major forest products in 180 interacting countries. The book thoroughly documents the methods, data, and computer software of the model, and demonstrates the model's usefulness in addressing international economic and environmental issues.
The Global Forest Products Model is written by an international multi-disciplinary team and is ideal for graduate students and professionals in forestry, natural resource economics, and related fields. It explains trends in world forest industries in the simplest terms by explaining the economic theory underlying the model. It describes six applications of the GFPM, three of which were commissioned by the Food Agriculture of the United Nations, the USDA Forest Service, and New Zealand Research.
The authors show how to apply the model to real issues such as the effects of the Asian economic crisis on the forest sector, the effects of eliminating tariffs on international trade and production, and the international effects of national environmental policies. They provide complete explanations on how to use the GFPM software, prepare the data, make the forecasts, and summarize the results with tables and graphs.
Comprehensive, and rigorous description of the world forestry sector
Written by an international multi-disciplinary team
Thorough description of data and methods
In-depth applications to modern economic and policy issues
Detailed documentation of the computer software
Suitable for students, researchers, and decision makers
The Global Forest Products Model is written by an international multi-disciplinary team and is ideal for graduate students and professionals in forestry, natural resource economics, and related fields. It explains trends in world forest industries in the simplest terms by explaining the economic theory underlying the model. It describes six applications of the GFPM, three of which were commissioned by the Food Agriculture of the United Nations, the USDA Forest Service, and New Zealand Research.
The authors show how to apply the model to real issues such as the effects of the Asian economic crisis on the forest sector, the effects of eliminating tariffs on international trade and production, and the international effects of national environmental policies. They provide complete explanations on how to use the GFPM software, prepare the data, make the forecasts, and summarize the results with tables and graphs.
Comprehensive, and rigorous description of the world forestry sector
Written by an international multi-disciplinary team
Thorough description of data and methods
In-depth applications to modern economic and policy issues
Detailed documentation of the computer software
Suitable for students, researchers, and decision makers